How the Paredes-Morel Swap Changes the Landscape of Talent Evaluation in Major League Baseball

In what shocked most of the baseball world this past week, Isaac Paredes was traded to the Chicago Cubs for Christopher Morel, along with minor league RHPs Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson. Paredes was rumored to have been in the discussions of Dodgers and Yankees Front Offices before the Cubs came in with a mid-game package for the All-Star Third Baseman.

Isaac Paredes is a true Ray through and through. He's an on base machine who takes advantage of the analytics and is a versatile defender. His pull-side tendencies concerns translating to Wrigley Field are overstated in my opinion. The pull-side power played extremely well however in Tropicana Field this year. Paredes is slashing .247/.355/.438 this year and his 130 wRC+ ranks second on the Cubs amongst all qualified hitters, just behind Seiya Suzuki, so his immediate impact is apparent to a faltering Cubs offense. His Statcast metrics don't jump off the page, but his bat-to-ball skills are apparent with only a 16.9 Whiff Percentage and 16% Strikeout Percentage. Paredes is also under control through 2027, fitting Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer's narrative of building for 2025 and beyond.

Christopher Morel has been a Cub since he was just 16 years old and has experienced success in flashes, never enough to be a consistent threat in a lineup. His knack for coming through in the big moments is what made him so beloved across baseball. Aside from that, he offers a great deal of athleticism. His bat speed ranks fifth in all of Major League Baseball and although he is struggling this year, has still produced 18 home runs. The peripherals will tell you that he should be performing at a much higher level than he currently is, a project that always seems to intrigue the Rays and other Moneyball oriented teams. His defense is subpar to say the least, showing a -9 Run Value at Third Base this year, good for last in all of baseball at any position. He showed promise as an outfielder last season which is where I assume he'll play in Tampa following Arozarena's departure and Caminero's likely soon arrival. Bigge will slot in nicely as a Setup man right away likely and Johnson is still a couple of years away in his development but has showed promise.

The reason this deal was so head scratching was because not only was the trade a major leaguer for a major leaguer, rare in and of itself, the team acquiring the "better" end of the deal is currently further out of a playoff spot than the team "selling," with the Cubs being 6 games out of a Wild Card spot and the Rays being only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card Spot at the time of the transaction. A tweet by Jeff Passan paints the trade in a different light. He uses the term "binary" when saying that there is no strict "buying and selling" in today's game, but rather a spectrum. The main goal of an MLB Front Office is to add value. Add value to ownership, fans, and the league itself. All while trying to bring home a championship, talk about a tall task at hand.

Christopher Morel was a piece Cubs fans saw being a huge part of a rather successful season, neither of those have worked out. He's run into his fair share of batted ball luck, but at the end of the day, he wasn't producing. In the third season of a retool since the roster teardown in 2021, the Cubs have regressed significantly after an exciting yet disappointing 2023. The Cubs find themselves in a predicament this season and moving forward. They lack the star power to compete in a league where star power dominates. The Rays have fully committed to the teardown, and likely have more to come. Tampa Bay has stockpiled the farm while acquiring major league ready talent to fill the holes they currently have in what has been an impressive deadline thus far, and the Cubs have made a move that upgrades them at a premium position for years to come. Both teams may have revolutionized the way teams "buy" and "sell" come the trade deadline

Baseball is a sport of tradition. Bad teams offload talent in hopes of hitting on a couple of flyer prospects and good teams upgrade their roster to stack up against the best of the best come October. Jed Hoyer and Erik Neander both find themselves unlikely to make the playoffs this season. However, both of them made a deal that they believe can not only help them now, but years down the line. How and why did they do it?

The Rays are a team that thrive on being bold and innovative. Led for years by Wall Street connoisseur Andrew Friedman, the Rays were constantly finding ways to challenge tradition, break down barriers, and succeed where others could not. Look at players like Ben Zobrist, Chris Archer, Tyler Glasnow, Randy Arozarena, and so many others. This move fits right along with what the Rays have been able to do so well for so long that others have not, create value where others can't. The Rays like what they have seen from Morel in his career clearly. The power is undeniable, he's charismatic, loves to compete, and has proved to be a more disciplined hitter this season. For Neander, that project feels safer than taking on a minor league prospect who may have performed in some capacity in his role but hasn't proved what he can be at the major league level.

For the Cubs, they are a big market team who hasn't seen the return on their investment they would have liked to this season, leading to some difficult decisions, such as parting ways with a fan favorite. Jed Hoyer understands that the 2024 season is not a season that will go down in history in Wrigleyville, but he does understand a shake-up and different archetype can better position his team for success down the road in areas where they lack. The Cubs don't want to enter their second rebuilding phase in four seasons. It's a move that would upset all Stakeholders in the franchise.

The point is the days of a yes or no decision are gone. The Cubs and the Rays looked themselves in the mirror, put their rosters on paper, and made a move they think can create value for their respective franchises moving forward, not just today. The Cubs look at Paredes and see a hitter disciplined beyond his years with a .316 Batting Average in high leverage situations, .283 Batting Average with RISP, and a versatile glove. The Rays look at Morel and see a future 40 home run hitter, successful player in the right conditions, and someone who can be a sparkplug at any given moment. Both teams made the move to bring them closer to a World Series in their minds, the analysis process just looks different for both teams. One will be more right than the other, but in the future, acquiring young and somewhat proven talent with controllable years could prove to be a more efficient and effective way to start from scratch. Both of these teams have found players who fit their model, fit their system, and fit their style of baseball in a manner that is more reliable than projecting the outcome of 20-year-old kids who have never played an out of Major League Baseball, and that is a development that could disrupt the way Scouts and GMs evaluate talent for good.